Major League Baseball’s Trade Deadline is a week away. The elimination of the waiver trade period, effectively making July 31st the only trade deadline, will force teams to decide whether they will use the deadline to make playoff run improvements or start planning for the future. For much of the 2019 campaign baseball commentators have speculated that the San Francisco Giants will be sellers at the deadline and that impending free agent Madison Bumgarner, among others, will be traded away to help replenish a farm system for a team in need of a rebuild. But is that still the case?

The post All-Star Game surge (11-2 since the break), which really began before the break with a sweep of the Padres to kick off July (the Giants’ first 3-game series sweep of the season), has complicated the “Giants are sellers” narrative. As the team continues to find ways to win games, fans and commentators alike are starting to think that a playoff spot might be within reach after all.

The Giants had a tough start to the season, going 22-34 through May but have turned it around with a winning record in June (14-13) and the aforementioned hot start to July (16-3, so far). Finding the right pieces seems to be the reason for the success. There was a lot of roster turnover in the early goings, so much so that The Mercury News ran a headline, “Reckless or relentless? Giants’ approach to roster raising questions” back in mid-April. But the roster has gained some stability as of late. To be sure, roster moves have continued – marginal players have been designated for assignment or sent down, and there have been some rookie call ups – but for the most players have settled into their roles. That all could change next Wednesday.

As a fan, you want your team to succeed in present, but you also hope that management will keep an eye toward the future. That’s what makes a Trade Deadline decision tough because to bring in that missing piece for a playoff run, you often have to part with valued prospects or draft picks. Writing for MLB.com, Mike Petriello predicts what seems like the ideal outcome for fans:

Our guess is that Zaidi will thread the needle by doing a little of both. He’ll deal from the team’s strong bullpen, but he won’t receive the offers he wants for Bumgarner, in part due to concerns that his reputation outweighs his 2019 performance, specifically his low fastball velocity (91.6 MPH) and high hard-hit rate (just 14th percentile). Throw in the X-factor of Bumgarner’s limited no-trade clause, and Zaidi will keep a franchise icon and extend him a qualifying offer that Bumgarner probably won’t accept this winter, meaning that at least a Draft pick will be coming back. Maybe he even signs an extension.

20 player, 20 Trade Deadline predictions by Mike Petriello via MLB.com. Links are original to Petriello’s posting.

This has been Zaidi’s approach to managing the roster so far. He has sought out players to improve on the margins in order to put a competitive team on the field. With the additions of big time contributors (Kevin Pillar, Mike Yastrzemski, and Alex Dickerson), combined with timely call ups and excellent management by Bruce Bochy, the Giants have gone on a run to pull within a few games of a Wild Card spot.

As of this writing, the chance that the Giants make the playoffs are slim, but also improving. According to popular metrics websites:
Baseball Reference: 13.0%
FanGraphs: 9.3%
FiveThirtyEight: 10%

Those aren’t great odds, but the optimistic fan holds out hope. The run might not be sustainable, but then again, it might be. Players who had been underperforming are finding their stride. Johnny Cueto could return in September. All I’m saying is the team is playing well, it’s Bochy’s final season, and there’s a chance. Let’s see what this team can do!