Revisiting My 2019 Season Predictions

Now that the regular season is in the books, let’s look back on my Opening Day predictions for the 2019 Division winners and Wild Card teams:

AMERICAN LEAGE (2/5)

American League East: Yankees (Yankees, 103-59)

American League Central: Indians (Twins, 101-61)

American League West: Astros (Astros, 107-55)

Wild Card 1: Red Sox (Athletics, 97-65)

Wild Card 2: Angels (Rays, 96-66)

NATIONAL LEAGUE (1/5, 3/5 made the playoffs)

National League East: Nationals (Braves, 97-65)

National League Central: Brewers (Cardinals, 91-71)

National League West: Dodgers (Dodgers, 106-56)

Wild Card 1: Phillies (Nationals, 93-69)

Wild Card 2: Giants (Brewers, 89-73)

I wasn’t very good at guessing where everyone would end up in the rankings (3/10 total) but I was .500 in identifying teams that would make the playoffs. Had I been more objective on my National League selections I would have had a chance to go 5/5 on that front. I got swept up in Harper mania and went with the Phillies over the Braves and gave a hometown discount to my Giants over the Cardinals or Brewers (Cardinals would have been my pick for the WC2 spot). 

In the American League there was no hope. I picked the Yankees and Astros as obvious choices. I had more hope for the Indians over the Twins but could have gone either way when the season began, I chose wrong. The Wild Card winners were a shock to me. Both the A’s and Rays exceeded my expectations and the Red Sox and Angels fell flat. 

BASEBALL AWARDS

The jury is still out for baseball’s performance awards (MVP, Cy Young, Manager of the Year) but the factors influencing those awards are already in. Ballots are due by the first pitch of the playoffs, so playoff numbers aren’t taken into account. At the start of the season I made predictions for Manager of the Year, Cy Young, and MVP. Below are my new predictions and explanation.

Manager of the Year:

Original Picks:

  • American League: Brad Ausmus
  • National League: Bruce Bochy

New Picks:

  • American League: A.J. Hinch.
  • National League: Bruce Bochy

At the beginning of the season I was optimistic about the Angels’ chances of making the postseason which led me to pick Ausmus as a Manager of the Year candidate. But things didn’t go so well for the Angels in Ausmus’ second year. With the regular season now in the books, I’ll guess that the award goes to the manager with the best regular season record, A.J. Hinch.

A different story in the National League, Bruce Bochy showed once again why he’s on his way to Cooperstown. The new president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi spent the beginning of the season building the airplane while it was in the air, but Bochy managed the team through the early struggles and kept the Giants in it well into the season. In the end the Giants finished with a losing record but it was an exciting ride and Bochy had a lot to do with that. The award will probably end up going to a manager whose team made the playoffs, so a second choice is Milwaukee skipper Craig Counsell.

Cy Young Winner:

Original Picks:

  • American League: Trevor Bauer, Indians
  • National League: Madison Bumgarner, Giants

New Picks:

  • American League: Justin Verlander, Astros
  • National League: Jacob deGrom, Mets

Bauer was traded to a NL team during the season so that obviously removes him from consideration for the AL Cy Young. With that I’ll give the nod to Justin Verlander who won 20 games this season (which is becoming even more of a rarity) one of which was a no-hitter. Gerrit Cole makes a compelling case, but I think he’ll come up just short of Verlander in the votes. Bumgarner was a homer pick, but I also thought he’d come back to form. He didn’t pitch well enough for Cy Young honors, but it was nice having him pitch like an ace again. My pick for the NL Cy Young is deGrom, he doesn’t have the wins but he dominated in all other categories. I also refuse to pick a Dodger (Hyun-Jin Ryu). If Max Scherzer had remained healthy, I think he would have made a great case here too.

MVP:

Original Picks:

  • American League: Mike Trout, Angels
  • National League: Anthony Rendon, Nationals

New Picks:

  • American League: Mike Trout, Angels
  • National League: Anthony Rendon, Nationals

I’m doubling down on my MVP picks. Despite the injuries, Trout was the best AL player again this year. I would be surprised if the award goes elsewhere. I’m less confident about my National League pick. I would disagree with the award going to Bellinger or Yelich over Rendon, but both players made solid cases as well, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see either of them take home the award instead.