After all the speculation and rumors linking Matt Chapman to the San Francisco Giants, the four-time gold glove third baseman is finally headed back to the Bay.

Time will tell if this move pays off. I have my doubts.

The Giants already have incumbent third baseman J.D. Davis on the roster for a more modest salary. While Chapman is reportedly coming in on a three-year, $54 million contract ($20 million in 2024), Davis is only slated to take home $6.9 million this season. Does Chapman improve the roster by the additional $13 million he’ll be paid next year?

Measured by career numbers, Chapman certainly has the edge on Davis. Both players are the same age, but Chapman has logged significantly more major league experience. He’s also more impressive defensively.

But more recent numbers paint a picture of Chapman as a more expensive Davis with a better glove. In fewer plate appearances last season, Davis put up comparable numbers and was also vying for a spot on the NL All-Star team before coming up short in voting for the Summer Classic.

Chapman’s defensive prowess cannot be ignored. Last season, the Giants were the worst team defensively, logging 117 errors. While Davis contributed to that total with 9 errors of his own, his numbers do not look all that different from Chapman’s (who won his fourth gold glove last season). Chapman recorded 12 errors across 1214 innings at third base (300 more than Davis, who also spent 30 games between first base and DH) and .968 FPCT. Davis had a .967 FPCT at third base and although he clocks in below Chapman on the “range factor” metric, he made strides in the field last season and proved to be a capable defensive third baseman.

Some speculated that signing Chapman and his superior glove makes even more sense, given the uncertainty surrounding Marco Luciano as the heir apparent at shortstop. However, it seemed to me that the Giants had already hedged against that by bringing in two-time Gold Glove winner Nick Ahmed on a minor league contract.

Because Davis can also play first base, the Giants could retain him in more of a utility and depth role, but that route is complicated by the presence of Wilmer Flores.

While it’s true that Wilmer is more of a defensive liability at the hot corner (a .928 fielding percentage and a career-low .848 in 2023), he’s coming off of a great offensive second half and has been the clubhouse guy that successful teams need. Look no further than his recruitment efforts to bring on Jorge Soler — a bat that would encroach on Wilmer’s DH opportunities — as evidence of his team-first mentality. With a 2024 salary of $6.5 million, he is also the lowest-priced of the three. If the Chapman signing spells the end of Wilmer’s time in San Francisco, then count me out on the deal.

The bottom line: The Chapman signing raises just as many questions as it answered. The Giants now have a surplus at third base and making a trade to clear up defensive assignments seems to be the next order of business. But who are the Giants going to part with, and what can they expect in return? Seemingly, the Giants will be able to find a suitor, but will that trade fill other pressing roster needs, i.e. starting pitching, and balance out Chapman’s more expensive contract?

Signing Matt Chapman could be the right move. He is a team leader and has history with new manager Bob Melvin from their time together in Oakland. As the 2024 season progresses, an offensive resurgence and Chapman’s intangibles might prove he’s worth the money. As a Giants fan, I’ll hope for the best, but I’m skeptical that this was much of an improvement.