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Thoughts on the Giants’ revamped rotation

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Recently, I suggested a savvy option for the Giants to upgrade their starting rotation. Thankfully, they went in a different direction and landed the reigning National League Cy Young award winner Blake Snell. In fairness to my position, at the time of my writing, I still thought Snell would be a good signing. Here’s how I ended that post:

I would certainly be happy with the Giants signing either Snell or Montgomery–heck, go for both–but I also understand the constraints. The bottom line is that the Giants need a starter, and Michael Lorenzen would be a good fit to fill that need.

– Me (two weeks ago)

But I was also well aware that the Giants have had their struggles landing the big name free agents lately. Last winter included the major disappointments of Aaron Judge resigning with the Yankees and the mega deal for Carlos Correa disintegrating overnight. This winter appeared to be going the same direction with both Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto agreeing to deals with the rival Dodgers (although, with Yamamoto getting shelled in his debut and the gambling drama surrounding Ohtani, neither seem like huge losses for the moment).

Even as the Giants and Snell remained a speculative pairing, the prospect became dimmer as the offseason wore on. The Giants had quietly made some moves on both sides of the ball and appeared to have assembled a rotation the team was comfortable rolling with to start the season. Or at the very least, they were comfortable selling it to the fan base–Snell is completely absent from a “Building the Giants Pitching Rotation” propaganda video that was released two days after he officially donned the orange and black.

All but a few sands in the Spring Training hour glass had fallen and other teams were also still in the mix. Until they weren’t. And Blake Snell was a Giant!

Even if Snell isn’t quite ready for Opening Day, his addition is a huge boost to a rotation that, in my opinion, was sporting more question marks than answers. According to MLB.com, having Snell in the fold merits ranking the Giants at number five in its rotations rankings–I think they should be higher.

Just a short time ago, the projected rotation looked much different. One projection penciled in the five spots this way:

  1. Logan Webb
  2. Ross Stripling
  3. Kyle Harrison
  4. Tristan Beck
  5. Keaton Winn

Between injuries and roster moves, including the Blake Snell addition, it’ll be a much different look (at least on paper, the placements might be off to start the season while guys get settled in).

  1. Logan Webb
  2. Blake Snell
  3. Jordan Hicks
  4. Kyle Harrison
  5. Keaton Winn

Things will look even different when/if everyone comes back healthy and the pitching staff is at full strength. Alex Cobb is reportedly ahead of schedule and Robbie Ray is still expected back in the second half. Having an All Star and Cy Young winner waiting in the wings gives the Giants an even more formidable rotation and plenty of depth.

I am always optimistic heading into a new baseball season, but I’m especially excited thanks to the pitching and defensive moves the front office made. The old adage, defense wins championships, is true. Pithing and defense were at the core of the 2010, 2012, and 2014 World Series Championships. That should be the model. Especially with the Giants playing half of their games at Oracle Park. Between the pitching upgrades and a left side of the infield sporting multiple Gold Gloves, the Giants could be on their way to competing for another Fall Classic.

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The Giants should start the season with another starter in the rotation

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Heading into the 2024 season, the Giants’s rotation was certainly in need of an upgrade. The 2023 starters were below average in quality starts (6 innings and fewer than 3 runs) and ranked third from the bottom in wins in games started. Some of that statistical poor showing has to do with the outsized use of the “opener.” Even still, Kapler’s reliance on the “opener,” in addition to him being a poor decision-maker, was mostly a symptom of a weak rotation–Wood, Manaea, and Stripling would have been starting games outright if they were performing.

But there were bright spots. Giants starters led the league in complete games (4), with Logan Webb (who should have been an All-Start and was the Cy Young runner-up) and Alex Cobb (first-time All-Start) logging two apiece. Both also threw for more than 150 innings (Webb led the league with 216 innings pitched). As spring training rolls along, Webb is a lock to make his third consecutive Opening Day start.

Some of the necessary changes have been made. All of the “featured pitchers” from the “opener” experiments have gone elsewhere. The Giants landed the 2021 Cy Young winner Robbie Ray by trading injury-ridden Anthony DeSclafani and outfielder Mitch Haniger to Seattle. They also brought on flame-throwing right-hander Jordan Hicks on a four-year deal with the intention of using him as a starting pitcher.

If everyone was healthy, the starting rotation would look something like this:
1. Logan Webb
2. Robbie Ray
3. Alex Cobb
4. Jordan Hicks
5. Kyle Harrison

But with less than a month before Opening Day, the Giants are rolling in with a skeleton crew. Instead, the rotation is:
1. Logan Webb (lock)
2. Jordan Hicks (reliever turned starter)
3. Kyle Harrison (unproven)
4. ?
5. ?

And after spring training injuries have taken their toll, some of the leading contenders for those rotation slots to fill in for Ray and Cobb are now on the shelf themselves. The Giants should add another starting pitcher!

The three names that I’ve heard most frequently linked to the Giants are Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and Michael Lorenzen. At this juncture, I think Lorenzen makes the most sense.

There are a couple of different ways to go about constructing a roster. One approach is to stockpile talent and sign the best players regardless of position and then try to move talent around after the fact. That seems to be what the Giants did with their signing of Matt Chapman despite already having a quality starting third baseman on the roster. On the one hand, you’ve got a better team (at least on paper) and plenty of depth. But there are constraints to stockpiling talent. After all, there are only 9 spots on the lineup card and only 9 innings per game (usually) for pitchers to pitch.

If the Giants want to stick with the “most talented” approach, they should nab Snell or Montgomery. Statistically, they had the better 2023 campaigns–although, of the trio, Lorenzen was the only All-Star. But given the current roster, Lorenzen makes plenty of sense. He would slot in as a quality starter immediately, but he would also be a good depth piece for a rotation with injury issues and several question marks. As players return from injury, he could remain a starter or, given his experience as a set-up man, move to the bullpen. That kind of flexibility is helpful over a 162-game marathon is a tremendous asset. He’s also viewed as a more cost-effective option. MLBTR predicted a two-year, $22 MM contract earlier in the offseason.

Lorenzen had his struggles last year, mostly in the second half, but he also had flashes of brilliance, e.g., throwing a no-hitter in his second start after being traded to the Phillies. It’s possible that those struggles were a consequence of wearing down. Before last season, he had only thrown more than 100 innings once in his career, and that was his rookie season with the Reds back in 2015. If the Giants bring him aboard, he’ll pencil in at the back end of the rotation, where usage and late-season fatigue will be of less concern.

I would certainly be happy with the Giants signing either Snell or Montgomery–heck, go for both–but I also understand the constraints. The bottom line is that the Giants need a starter, and Michael Lorenzen would be a good fit to fill that need.

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The Giants bring on Matt Chapman

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After all the speculation and rumors linking Matt Chapman to the San Francisco Giants, the four-time gold glove third baseman is finally headed back to the Bay.

Time will tell if this move pays off. I have my doubts.

The Giants already have incumbent third baseman J.D. Davis on the roster for a more modest salary. While Chapman is reportedly coming in on a three-year, $54 million contract ($20 million in 2024), Davis is only slated to take home $6.9 million this season. Does Chapman improve the roster by the additional $13 million he’ll be paid next year?

Measured by career numbers, Chapman certainly has the edge on Davis. Both players are the same age, but Chapman has logged significantly more major league experience. He’s also more impressive defensively.

https://stathead.com/tiny/DOdgJ

But more recent numbers paint a picture of Chapman as a more expensive Davis with a better glove. In fewer plate appearances last season, Davis put up comparable numbers and was also vying for a spot on the NL All-Star team before coming up short in voting for the Summer Classic.

https://stathead.com/tiny/mPWFy

Chapman’s defensive prowess cannot be ignored. Last season, the Giants were the worst team defensively, logging 117 errors. While Davis contributed to that total with 9 errors of his own, his numbers do not look all that different from Chapman’s (who won his fourth gold glove last season). Chapman recorded 12 errors across 1214 innings at third base (300 more than Davis, who also spent 30 games between first base and DH) and .968 FPCT. Davis had a .967 FPCT at third base and although he clocks in below Chapman on the “range factor” metric, he made strides in the field last season and proved to be a capable defensive third baseman.

Some speculated that signing Chapman and his superior glove makes even more sense, given the uncertainty surrounding Marco Luciano as the heir apparent at shortstop. However, it seemed to me that the Giants had already hedged against that by bringing in two-time Gold Glove winner Nick Ahmed on a minor league contract.

Because Davis can also play first base, the Giants could retain him in more of a utility and depth role, but that route is complicated by the presence of Wilmer Flores.

https://stathead.com/tiny/5LWGh

While it’s true that Wilmer is more of a defensive liability at the hot corner (a .928 fielding percentage and a career-low .848 in 2023), he’s coming off of a great offensive second half and has been the clubhouse guy that successful teams need. Look no further than his recruitment efforts to bring on Jorge Soler — a bat that would encroach on Wilmer’s DH opportunities — as evidence of his team-first mentality. With a 2024 salary of $6.5 million, he is also the lowest-priced of the three. If the Chapman signing spells the end of Wilmer’s time in San Francisco, then count me out on the deal.

The bottom line: The Chapman signing raises just as many questions as it answered. The Giants now have a surplus at third base and making a trade to clear up defensive assignments seems to be the next order of business. But who are the Giants going to part with, and what can they expect in return? Seemingly, the Giants will be able to find a suitor, but will that trade fill other pressing roster needs, i.e. starting pitching, and balance out Chapman’s more expensive contract?

Signing Matt Chapman could be the right move. He is a team leader and has history with new manager Bob Melvin from their time together in Oakland. As the 2024 season progresses, an offensive resurgence and Chapman’s intangibles might prove he’s worth the money. As a Giants fan, I’ll hope for the best, but I’m skeptical that this was much of an improvement.

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Which Team Will Win It All?

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MLB’s Postseason gets underway tonight with a Wild Card matchup between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Washington Nationals. Before things get underway, here is my prediction for how the postseason goes down.

We begin with disappointment on the National League front. Of the NL teams vying for the pennant, both of the teams I’m willing to cheer for face off in the Wild Card round. Disappointed to have to choose between them at this early stage, I’ll pick Nationals over Brewers to get things started.

In the AL Wild Card matchup between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Oakland Athletics, I fall victim to my hometown biases and will bet on the A’s. The A’s have been featured in two Wild Card matchups since the expanded format and lost both. This is the year they make it to the next round!

Back to the National League, I have St. Louis facing off against Atlanta and the Los Angels Dodgers hosting the Washington Nationals. I think Braves sweep and Dodgers take the Nats in four games.

For the American League, the Wild Card team again bows out as the Houston Astros sweep. Personally, I could go either way here. The A’s were a local team for me growing up so I think I’ll root for them over the Astros but no hard feelings when the Astros advance instead. It’s easy for me to root for the Twins over the Yankees, something about the TC logo I think… that and it’s the Yankees. But I think I’ll be disappointed by this series which I predict goes all the way to Game 5 for the Yankees.

In an Atlanta vs. Los Angeles matchup for the NLCS, I’ll be cheering for the Braves! My cheers carry no weight however and despite my best efforts the dreaded Dodgers prevail to win their third straight National League Pennant. That one probably goes 5 games.

Now, if everything goes as I’ve predicted so far, Major League Baseball will be thrilled. We would face the prospect of a 2017 rematch between the Dodgers and Astros or a throwback, 12th matchup between the Dodgers and Yankees. I don’t want to see the Yankees win another World Series and I loath the Dodgers so it only makes sense that the World Series feature those two teams. Fortunately, we can have the lesser of two evils and I predict the Yankees win in six.

Now for the most important prediction of all: I predict Taco Bell brings back the “steal a base, steal a taco” promotion and Chris Taylor, OF, Dodgers steals everyone a taco!

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Revisiting My 2019 Season Predictions

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Now that the regular season is in the books, let’s look back on my Opening Day predictions for the 2019 Division winners and Wild Card teams:

AMERICAN LEAGE (2/5)

American League East: Yankees (Yankees, 103-59)

American League Central: Indians (Twins, 101-61)

American League West: Astros (Astros, 107-55)

Wild Card 1: Red Sox (Athletics, 97-65)

Wild Card 2: Angels (Rays, 96-66)

NATIONAL LEAGUE (1/5, 3/5 made the playoffs)

National League East: Nationals (Braves, 97-65)

National League Central: Brewers (Cardinals, 91-71)

National League West: Dodgers (Dodgers, 106-56)

Wild Card 1: Phillies (Nationals, 93-69)

Wild Card 2: Giants (Brewers, 89-73)

I wasn’t very good at guessing where everyone would end up in the rankings (3/10 total) but I was .500 in identifying teams that would make the playoffs. Had I been more objective on my National League selections I would have had a chance to go 5/5 on that front. I got swept up in Harper mania and went with the Phillies over the Braves and gave a hometown discount to my Giants over the Cardinals or Brewers (Cardinals would have been my pick for the WC2 spot). 

In the American League there was no hope. I picked the Yankees and Astros as obvious choices. I had more hope for the Indians over the Twins but could have gone either way when the season began, I chose wrong. The Wild Card winners were a shock to me. Both the A’s and Rays exceeded my expectations and the Red Sox and Angels fell flat. 

BASEBALL AWARDS

The jury is still out for baseball’s performance awards (MVP, Cy Young, Manager of the Year) but the factors influencing those awards are already in. Ballots are due by the first pitch of the playoffs, so playoff numbers aren’t taken into account. At the start of the season I made predictions for Manager of the Year, Cy Young, and MVP. Below are my new predictions and explanation.

Manager of the Year:

Original Picks:

  • American League: Brad Ausmus
  • National League: Bruce Bochy

New Picks:

  • American League: A.J. Hinch.
  • National League: Bruce Bochy

At the beginning of the season I was optimistic about the Angels’ chances of making the postseason which led me to pick Ausmus as a Manager of the Year candidate. But things didn’t go so well for the Angels in Ausmus’ second year. With the regular season now in the books, I’ll guess that the award goes to the manager with the best regular season record, A.J. Hinch.

A different story in the National League, Bruce Bochy showed once again why he’s on his way to Cooperstown. The new president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi spent the beginning of the season building the airplane while it was in the air, but Bochy managed the team through the early struggles and kept the Giants in it well into the season. In the end the Giants finished with a losing record but it was an exciting ride and Bochy had a lot to do with that. The award will probably end up going to a manager whose team made the playoffs, so a second choice is Milwaukee skipper Craig Counsell.

Cy Young Winner:

Original Picks:

  • American League: Trevor Bauer, Indians
  • National League: Madison Bumgarner, Giants

New Picks:

  • American League: Justin Verlander, Astros
  • National League: Jacob deGrom, Mets

Bauer was traded to a NL team during the season so that obviously removes him from consideration for the AL Cy Young. With that I’ll give the nod to Justin Verlander who won 20 games this season (which is becoming even more of a rarity) one of which was a no-hitter. Gerrit Cole makes a compelling case, but I think he’ll come up just short of Verlander in the votes. Bumgarner was a homer pick, but I also thought he’d come back to form. He didn’t pitch well enough for Cy Young honors, but it was nice having him pitch like an ace again. My pick for the NL Cy Young is deGrom, he doesn’t have the wins but he dominated in all other categories. I also refuse to pick a Dodger (Hyun-Jin Ryu). If Max Scherzer had remained healthy, I think he would have made a great case here too.

MVP:

Original Picks:

  • American League: Mike Trout, Angels
  • National League: Anthony Rendon, Nationals

New Picks:

  • American League: Mike Trout, Angels
  • National League: Anthony Rendon, Nationals

I’m doubling down on my MVP picks. Despite the injuries, Trout was the best AL player again this year. I would be surprised if the award goes elsewhere. I’m less confident about my National League pick. I would disagree with the award going to Bellinger or Yelich over Rendon, but both players made solid cases as well, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see either of them take home the award instead.

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Should the Giants Be Sellers at the Deadline? This fan Says, NO!

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Major League Baseball’s Trade Deadline is a week away. The elimination of the waiver trade period, effectively making July 31st the only trade deadline, will force teams to decide whether they will use the deadline to make playoff run improvements or start planning for the future. For much of the 2019 campaign baseball commentators have speculated that the San Francisco Giants will be sellers at the deadline and that impending free agent Madison Bumgarner, among others, will be traded away to help replenish a farm system for a team in need of a rebuild. But is that still the case?

The post All-Star Game surge (11-2 since the break), which really began before the break with a sweep of the Padres to kick off July (the Giants’ first 3-game series sweep of the season), has complicated the “Giants are sellers” narrative. As the team continues to find ways to win games, fans and commentators alike are starting to think that a playoff spot might be within reach after all.

The Giants had a tough start to the season, going 22-34 through May but have turned it around with a winning record in June (14-13) and the aforementioned hot start to July (16-3, so far). Finding the right pieces seems to be the reason for the success. There was a lot of roster turnover in the early goings, so much so that The Mercury News ran a headline, “Reckless or relentless? Giants’ approach to roster raising questions” back in mid-April. But the roster has gained some stability as of late. To be sure, roster moves have continued – marginal players have been designated for assignment or sent down, and there have been some rookie call ups – but for the most players have settled into their roles. That all could change next Wednesday.

As a fan, you want your team to succeed in present, but you also hope that management will keep an eye toward the future. That’s what makes a Trade Deadline decision tough because to bring in that missing piece for a playoff run, you often have to part with valued prospects or draft picks. Writing for MLB.com, Mike Petriello predicts what seems like the ideal outcome for fans:

Our guess is that Zaidi will thread the needle by doing a little of both. He’ll deal from the team’s strong bullpen, but he won’t receive the offers he wants for Bumgarner, in part due to concerns that his reputation outweighs his 2019 performance, specifically his low fastball velocity (91.6 MPH) and high hard-hit rate (just 14th percentile). Throw in the X-factor of Bumgarner’s limited no-trade clause, and Zaidi will keep a franchise icon and extend him a qualifying offer that Bumgarner probably won’t accept this winter, meaning that at least a Draft pick will be coming back. Maybe he even signs an extension.

20 player, 20 Trade Deadline predictions by Mike Petriello via MLB.com. Links are original to Petriello’s posting.

This has been Zaidi’s approach to managing the roster so far. He has sought out players to improve on the margins in order to put a competitive team on the field. With the additions of big time contributors (Kevin Pillar, Mike Yastrzemski, and Alex Dickerson), combined with timely call ups and excellent management by Bruce Bochy, the Giants have gone on a run to pull within a few games of a Wild Card spot.

As of this writing, the chance that the Giants make the playoffs are slim, but also improving. According to popular metrics websites:
Baseball Reference: 13.0%
FanGraphs: 9.3%
FiveThirtyEight: 10%

Those aren’t great odds, but the optimistic fan holds out hope. The run might not be sustainable, but then again, it might be. Players who had been underperforming are finding their stride. Johnny Cueto could return in September. All I’m saying is the team is playing well, it’s Bochy’s final season, and there’s a chance. Let’s see what this team can do!

Source: http://giphygifs.s3.amazonaws.com/media/ToMjGpKniGqRNLGBrhu/giphy.gif
SF Giants, Uncategorized

Happy Opening Day! My 2019 Season Predictions

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It’s opening day! Every team (except for the A’s and Mariners*) begins with a clean slate and dreams of making the playoffs. Here are my predictions for the 2019 Division winners and Wild Card teams:

American League East: Yankees

American League Central: Indians

American League West: Astros

Wild Card 1: Red Sox

Wild Card 2: Angels

 

National League East: Nationals

National League Central: Brewers

National League West: Dodgers

Wild Card 1: Phillies

Wild Card 2: Giants

A note on my pick for the Giants to win one of the Wild Card spots, since some will dismiss this as overly optimistic: Bruce Bochy enters his final year as a manager and sits 18 games under .500 with a record of 1926-1944. It’s a tall order for the Giants to end the regular season with the 99-63 record needed to pull the skipper out of a losing record, but the Giants know that this is Bochy’s farewell tour and if there’s anyone who can get the most out of his players, it’s him. 

Manager of the Year:

Building on my optimism for a winning season in San Francisco, I am predicting Bruce Bochy as the NL Manager of the Year. For the AL, I will go with Angels skipper Brad Asmus. Riding the record deal with Mike Trout, the Angels will put together the pieces for a playoff run. If you’re wondering if I’m biased to think former catchers make the best managers, you’re probably right.

Cy Young Winner:

American League: Trevor Bauer, Indians (mostly because of the great first name)

National League: Madison Bumgarner, Giants

MVP:

American League: Mike Trout, Angels

National League: Anthony Rendon, Nationals

*The A’s and Mariners have already logged their first two games of the season in Japan. The Mariners took the two game set and now sit atop the standings 2-0 while the A’s have the misfortune of starting Opening Day in last place. I am not a fan of this. Opening Day is a tradition in baseball, and starting the season early to play internationally takes away from that. It’s fine to build some international games into the schedule, but they shouldn’t come before the rest of the regular season begins.